Forward the Original Title: How to win in the AI meta (without getting lucky)

first, disclaimers:

I’m not the best trader, but here are some of my key takeaways from the last 2 months navigating the AI meta alongside some of the best

the aim here is to not only distill the concepts i’ve learnt but also to give you practical examples and suggestions to help you understand and better navigate this market (hopefully)

let’s dive.

1/ attention vs fundamentals

there are two main reasons why a coin’s price go up:

• attention (hype)

• fundamentals (“actual value”, technology, adoption)

attention-based coins:

these are tokens whose prices skyrocket mainly because everyone is talking about them (think meme coins that trend on X/tiktok). in these scenarios, a coin’s price can pump quickly but also dump just as fast, because there’s no “real underlying value” — just pure hype.

fundamentals-based coins:

these have some real value proposition — interesting technology, a strong development team, partnerships, or a useful product. if the price dips short term, it’s often just “noise” because the long-term potential could still be significant.

suppose there’s a meme coin that’s getting lots of tweets and tiktok mentions. its price goes up just because people are paying attention to it. if and when that attention disappears, the price collapses. fast.

on the other hand, think of a more established project that is building an AI-powered tool and has partnerships with other known projects/companies. even if its price moves slowly at first, over time, as more people see the real product working, the price can rise steadily.

when trading on hype, watch price action very closely and be ready to exit if momentum fades. when investing based on fundamentals, short-term drops might not matter if you trust the project’s long-term growth (my personal style). always be ready to cut a project if the fundamentals weaken/change. do not ever marry your bags.

2/ looking at the room for expansion

it’s better to focus on projects that can potentially multiply in value many times over instead of making small, incremental gains.

instead of aiming for a token that might go from a $1m to $5m fdv (a smaller opportunity), look for something you believe can go from $5m to $100m or even $1b over time. such trades, if well-executed, can be “life-changing” rather than just providing quick pocket change.

you want to always be seeking opportunities with significant upside. this often means looking at very early-stage projects with strong fundamentals or unique innovations, rather than well-known coins that have “already pumped”.

3/ early stage opportunities

profitable trades often come from getting into trends before they become mainstream. if you can spot a promising project or narrative (like AI infra or swarms/multi agent architecture) before everyone else, you capture the biggest gains.

basically, if you started researching AI-related tech/projects before AI became an industry widespread buzzword, you could identify a good coin at a very low market cap. as AI hype grows, more people join in, pumping the price. being early means you catch a large part of that wave

spend time learning about emerging trends in AI (e.g. multimodality, decentralized inference, swarms, flow engineering, agentfi, etc) and get in before they hit top news. this might mean following developer announcements, reading whitepapers, and checking social media chatter early on.

4/ develop a process

having an edge — like using custom scripts, analytics dashboards, or any efficient research methodologies helps you find good opportunities faster than the majority.

you could use a crypto price alert bot, or a platform like dexscreener & alternatives to track new token launches. when something new appears and suddenly gets volume (people buying in), you investigate immediately. check the project’s landing page, team, X account, telegram, discord, etc. if it looks promising, you can decide from there whether to pull the trigger.

speed matters. you can even leverage simple tools like an X list of reputable “AI quants”, telegram groups, etc to stay on top of new opportunities. over time, you can get more advanced tools, but start with what’s free and simple. point is — you gotta have a strategy, a process, to help you win.

5/ avoiding “mid-curve” traps

it’s often easier to either buy leaders that have already proven themselves or find entirely new low-cap gems. mid-cap projects that haven’t clearly established themselves are riskier because new competitors can easily outshine them.

let’s say you have:

• established project A at a $1b fdv, well-known and delivering new features

• new project B at a $1m fdv with an exciting idea, but still unknown

• project C at $50m fdv that’s not really innovating and constantly getting overshadowed

a beginner might think C is “safer than B but cheaper than A.” however, if C is stuck without growth or innovation, it’s less likely to give you big returns than finding a new, promising B or sticking with a reliable A.

the takeaway here is if you’re picking mid-sized projects, make sure they have a plan to stand out. otherwise, they might just drift and waste your time and capital — it’s all about opportunity costs at the end of the day.

6/ sector-focused growth (also why i’m only focused on AI)

AI is a secular trend. we’re seeing relevancy not just within crypto, but across all industries.

having said that, when an entire sector (like AI) shows huge long-term potential, the whole “pie” might expand drastically — far beyond current valuations. the early established leaders in that sector are likely to multiply in value over time.

if the entire AI agent category is currently worth ~$10b but you believe it will become one of the most dominant sectors in a few years and could grow to $100 billion or more, leaders in the space (established projects with strong communities and products) might 10x or more as the sector grows.

identifying the leaders in a growth narrative and betting on them now can be a safer and more profitable option as the entire sector matures.

7/ adaptation and continuous improvement

AI moves fast. crypto moves faster. you need to constantly update your strategies. reflect on what worked and what didn’t, and learn from your mistakes.

a good practice could be, after a month of trading, write down your top 5 wins and losses. ask yourself: why did I buy this coin? when did I sell, and why? could I have spotted a trend earlier? by reviewing this regularly, you learn to recognize patterns in your decision-making and improve over time.

treat trading like a skill to be honed. journaling trades, gauging market sentiments, and discussing strategies with other crypto traders helps you grow smarter and faster.

8/ manage liquidity and stay flexible

keep some cash on the side so you can jump on new opportunities as soon as they appear. don’t get stuck holding too many bags that you can’t quickly exit.

suppose you have $1,000 to punt. instead of putting all $1,000 into one coin and waiting for months, maybe put $600 into a promising project, and keep $400 ready. if a new hot project emerges that you believe in, you have liquidity ready to enter.

liquidity = flexibility. being able to move fast when a golden opportunity arises is often more important than being “fully invested” at all times.

9/ becoming a student of the game (not just in the AI meta, but crypto in general)

play a long, continuous game. think of crypto as a career, an infinite game where you keep getting better and smarter. don’t just look at it like a lottery ticket. you’re here to continuously build knowledge, skills, and capital over years — not just chase one big win. if this is truly the future of finance (which i think it is), we’re only in chapter 1 of that story.

an amateur might say: “i want to get rich quick in a month”. a long term-minded participant would instead say: “i want to steadily improve my understanding, become good at spotting trends, and after a year or two, I’ll be much better positioned to profit from big moves” — this can be trading, investing or even building something of your own.

over time, good habits — like focused research, active reflection, patience, and discipline compound. eventually, you’ll have the know-how to take advantage of major bull runs effectively.

be patient and consistent. over multiple market cycles, those who treat this like a profession and continually improve their craft will outperform those who rely on luck and hype alone.

0/ putting it all together

the main lesson is this — don’t just chase what’s hot. develop a process. learn to spot trends early, do your research, focus on fundamentals when possible, and treat crypto like a long-term skill to master. keep some money ready to seize new opportunities, review your past decisions, and learn continuously. over time, this mindset will help you find the big winners, spot key opportunities, and avoid becoming someone else’s “exit liquidity.”

terry

[co-authored by gpt o1]

Disclaimer:

1. This article is reprinted from [erry]. Forward the Original Title: How to win in the AI meta (without getting lucky). All copyrights belong to the original author [@terrytjw]. If there are objections to this reprint, please contact the Gate Learn team, and they will handle it promptly.
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