Is the Crypto Market Poised for a “Christmas Market”?

2024-12-19, 09:16

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![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/1734599492hotspot.png)
## [TL；DR]: 
There is still significant uncertainty in the volatility of the <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">crypto market</a> before Christmas, especially after experiencing a major correction in the counterfeit market on December 18, the entire counterfeit market has not yet returned to an upward trend.

From historical data, from 2014 to 2023, the crypto market experienced more increases than decreases around Christmas.

Among numerous Christmas-themed Meme coins, Rizzmas currently has the most enduring popularity, with its market cap dropping from $100 million to the current $17 million.

## Introduction
As Christmas approaches, the focus of market attention shifts from the "Trump deal" to the "Christmas market." This article will provide an in-depth analysis of the Christmas market by combining data from the crypto market before and after Christmas over the years, as well as multiple dimensions, such as this year's Christmas-themed Meme coin hype.
 
## Christmas is Approaching, Market Uncertainty is Increasing
After a month-long Alt Season in the crypto market, the market has once again fallen into a correction. On the one hand, the Trump administration has promised to make significant contributions to the crypto industry, with its nominated Secretary of the Treasury and Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) being supporters of cryptocurrencies. The market generally believes that the positive shift in US policy marks the arrival of a "golden age" for the crypto market.

On the other hand, the Trump family has recently been exposed to have increased their holdings of crypto assets such as ETH, ENA, ONDO, <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price/aave-aave" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">AAVE</a>, and <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price/link-ln" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">LINK</a>, injecting strong bullish confidence into the market.
 ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17345995381.jpeg)
Source: Arkham
 
However, overall, there is still significant uncertainty in the volatility of the crypto market before Christmas, especially after experiencing the knockoff correction on December 18. The entire knockoff market has not yet returned to an upward trend, with only a few sectors such as RWA and DeFi relatively resistant to decline.

Taking ETH as an example, although spot ETF funds have maintained a net inflow of $604 million for 16 consecutive days, and key indicators such as the number of active addresses, trading volume, and total transfer volume on the chain have steadily increased, the coin price is still fluctuating around $4,000, and there has not yet been a trend that leads the entire counterfeit market to take off again.
 ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17345995632.jpeg)
Source: Gate.io

On the other hand, the market sentiment for ETH is at its lowest level since December 18, 2023, which is a typical bullish signal. At that time, when market sentiment hit rock bottom, ETH subsequently rose by 30%.
![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17345995843.jpeg)
Source: santiment

The current explanation for the above contradictory situation is that the Christmas hype (Santa Claus Rally) has not yet erupted, and the market has a certain degree of uncertainty.
 
## Santa Claus Rally Has Risen More than Fallen Over the Years
From historical data, from 2014 to 2023, the crypto market experienced more increases than decreases around Christmas.

Specifically, in the week before Christmas (December 19-25), the total market cap of cryptocurrencies increased 7 times, ranging from 0.20% to 13.19%. In the week after Christmas (December 27 to January 2), the number of price increases reached 8 times, ranging from 0.33% to 11.87%.
![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17345996194.jpeg)
Source: CoinGecko
 
Taking BTC as an example, in the past decade, <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> has experienced 7 increases in the week before Christmas, with gains ranging from 0.20% to 13.19%; In the week after Christmas, there were 5 increases, ranging from 0.33% to 10.86%. The biggest Christmas market for Bitcoin occurred in the week before Christmas in 2016, with a staggering increase of 13.19%.
![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17346036386.20.jpeg)
Source: CoinGecko
 
However, Bitcoin does not always perform well during the Christmas season. For example, in the week before Christmas 2017, the price of Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, with a drop of up to 21.30%.

Therefore, according to CoinGecko's research, the probability of crypto rising during Christmas is relatively high, which may be related to the festive atmosphere and market speculation. Of course, although Bitcoin performs well during the Christmas period in most years, there are still some years where it has experienced a decline. This reminds us to maintain a cautious attitude when investing in cryptocurrencies and avoid blindly following the trend.
 
## Christmas Market Game, Never Absent Meme Hype Hits
As Christmas approaches, although the uncertainty of market fluctuations increases and past data cannot provide us with sufficient bullish guidance, a series of Christmas-themed Meme coins have emerged one after another, which has indeed sparked a lot of speculation.

Among numerous Christmas-themed Meme coins, Rizzmas currently has the most enduring popularity. The project was hyped up with Christmas as its theme, attracting the attention of many TikTok users. Everyone is looking forward to Rizzmas reaching a market cap of 100 million before Christmas.
![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17345996916.jpeg)
Source: @rizzmascto
 
Rizzmas' market cap quickly climbed to nearly $100 million within just a few days of its creation, demonstrating astonishing market appeal. However, the hype has slightly decreased, with a market cap of only $10 million. Currently, Gate.io has launched this coin. Interested readers can [click to view it](https://www.gate.io/zh/trade/RIZZMAS_USDT "click to view it").
 ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17345997067.jpeg)
Source: Gate.io 
 
In addition, Christmas-themed Meme coins, such as GRINCH and Chill Grinch, have also emerged, further driving the market's hype atmosphere through interaction and competition with other projects.

From the transaction data, it can be seen that the trading volume of these Christmas-themed Meme coins has significantly increased before Christmas, so there are still expectations of repeated speculation. Taking Rizzmas as an example, its trading volume reached an astonishing $100 million within 24 hours, demonstrating extremely high market activity. Meanwhile, the social media attention and community discussion of these projects rise, providing strong support for market hype.

In short, this year's Christmas Day will become a major highlight in the crypto market, as the market is cautiously playing with the "Christmas market" while also speculating on the constantly heating theme of Memes. With the general market rally temporarily stalled, a structural upward trend is expected to occur around Christmas speculation, and the arrival of a comprehensive bull market still needs time to brew.

<div class="blog-details-info">
<div>Author:**Charle Y.**, Gate.io Researcher
<div>Translator:Joy Z.
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions. All investments carry inherent risks; prudent decision-making is essential.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
</div>