Will Bitcoin crash after Trump's victory and the soaring price? Is the price overvalued when 'Favourable Information' is implemented?

The short-term rise in Fluctuation has been overestimated, and the core part of the market has already happened. This article comes from the long article of MiyaHedge, an encryption KOL on X platform, compiled, translated and written by Block Beats. (Background: BTC broke through $76,400 to create a new high! Ethereum rose above 2,800, and Trump won the US stock market.) This article discusses the price Fluctuation of BTC during the election and points out that the BTC price is closely related to Trump's election chances. The short-term rise has been overestimated, and the actual rise has already happened. The value of BTC as an inflation-hedging asset will gradually become apparent, and it is believed that the price change after Trump's election victory will not be significant. The long-term rise of BTC will occur in 2025/2026. The following is the original content (for ease of reading and understanding, the original content has been edited): Today's series analysis of election results First, we start with the analysis of betting market odds that currently dominate the BTC price trend. For reference: At the time of this post (14:02 UTC), Trump's winning odds were 61.7%, and the BTC price was $70,047.38. The relationship between BTC price trend and Trump's winning odds First, I will compare the BTC price trend with Trump's winning odds, assuming that the Fluctuation of BTC price in the past few weeks is entirely based on Trump's winning chances. Then, I will divide these price trends into four different stages. October 5 to October 12: Opportunity emerging In this week, the mentality of market participants began to change: Trump's winning probability (slowly rose to more than 50% in the betting market) is not zero. In fact, the election looks closer than expected (especially after Biden retired). The initial impact of this perception is that market participants began to hedge against expectations of Harris winning or re-evaluating previous biases. By comparing the two baskets GSP24DEM and GSP24REP, it can be clearly seen that after the debate between Harris and Trump, the market's confidence in Harris winning appears to be too complacent. Not only did the market show complacency in the outcome, but it also severely misjudged the possibility of Trump winning. In August and September, almost no one followed the election, and the market was almost entirely priced for Harris' victory. Therefore, the following situations occurred: 1. More than 75% of people believe that Harris has a very high chance of winning. 2. Almost no one hedges against Trump's victory, and everyone focuses on index risk hedging. 3. The betting market began to tilt towards Trump suddenly. At that time, there was another thing worth following in the TradFi market, which can help better understand the speed of emotional changes at that time. In the first stage (October 5 to October 12), the demand for index-level hedging was very high. This means that everyone thinks that the market index (such as Standard & Poor's 500, Nasdaq) may experience a significant decline. [Remember the situation in Iran?] Therefore, investors have bought index hedging to avoid huge "explosive" impacts. However, every time there is a large amount of index hedging without actual risk outbreaks, the "painful transaction" oftenReverse upward. Therefore, the market began to rise. The worst-case conflict (such as Iran and Israel) did not happen, and the market sentiment also calmed down. The Middle East's "fear, uncertainty and doubt" is not insignificant, although encryption Twitter (CT) seems to have wrongly played down its impact. During this week, the premium of index hedging reached an unprecedented height, and investors' nervousness almost focused all their attention on index downside risk, and they almost ignored the upcoming election. The reversal of this emotion did not occur when the oil price peaked in early October (see image: oil price pressure), but in late October. Trump/election trading began when investors were fully focused on index risk (see BTC's strong performance on October 10), rather than recently. The above content is to make readers understand the theme of October 5 to October 12 and why the follow-up of this transaction is insufficient, why the "Trump transaction" has become such an important dominant theme, and why there are no buyers to take over the profit. In summary: The index risk brought by the Middle East provided a good buying opportunity for funds that dared to challenge panic emotions, and the "Trump transaction" opened from this. The complacent emotion of Harris winning began to reverse, and the market shifted its focus to the fear, uncertainty, and doubt in the Middle East. So, something happened: Trump's sensitive stocks welcomed the most hatedRebound, driven by "no one has right tail risk" and Trump's mean reversion. BTC reacted slower to this emotional change. We were the last assets to follow the change, and we rose with Trump's media (a bit like MEME stocks) as the probability of Trump's victory rose (the actual stock basket adjusted faster, and most Republican stocks had been adjusted by early October). Mean reversion is happening. BTC has shown strength since the last callback on October 10, because market participants realized that election trading has started, and the entire market has now entered a "risk-on" state. October 12 to October 30: Chasing the rise In this 18-day window, the accumulated amount of BTC was crazy just to wait for the election results. This Rebound is basically a one-way rise, shorts are ridiculed, and callbacks are completely swallowed. ETF fund inflows hit new highs. It is simply a crazy environment to watch the rise. But why is this happening? Saylor's forward-looking transactions? Actually not, MSTR's announcement hardly caused Fluctuation, all of which originated from the election transaction, and that’s it. Except for the rise in Trump's winning odds, no other factors (such as interest rates or inflation) can provide buyers with such a signal to chase the rise. During those days, the market rose almost every day, and geopolitical risks and the weakness of Nasdaq were completely ignored (such as the difference in trend between Nasdaq and BTC on October 15). The entire market performed as a big green candle. All of this is closely related to Trump's winning odds. Trump's sensitive stocks were heavily bought, and BTC also rose with it. We have been chasing prices, and the Open Interest (OI) of Perptual Futures has continued to increase. Even though the lead of Perptual Futures is very large, BTC continues to rise, and there is no violent callback, even if Nasdaq is performing weakly. For example, on October 17, the price near 67K remained stable for a period of time, and then the Spot market followed slightly, but there was no significant callback. This indicates that there is not only a short-term leverage liquidation demand in the market, but the actual demand is also supporting the rise. This also implies that this rise is event-driven, and investors hope to enter the market at this time. Around October 14, the market changed from "we did not correctly consider Trump's chances of winning" to "Trump seems to be winning, and now we must chase the rise." That week, the macro market performance showed a clear correlation with the Trump transaction, especially the nuclear energy and commercial real estate sectors, which rose with BTC-sensitive stocks. Obviously, this wave of rise is not accidental, but the result of the promotion of the Trump transaction. The real core of this market occurred in that week, and any...