The Liberal Democratic Party suffered a severe defeat in the Japanese National Diet election, and the Japanese yen hit a 3-month low. Will Fumio Kishida become the shortest-serving prime minister? The Central Bank is expected to postpone interest rate hikes.

Japan's House of Representatives election results on Monday morning showed that Japan's ruling coalition was not more than halfway through, and the yen fell to a three-month low, and Japanese stocks strengthened on Monday morning. Nomura Securities analyzed that once Shigeru Ishiba is forced to resign, the future cabinet will adopt a more dovish economic policy, causing Central Bank to postpone interest rate hikes and the yen to fall further. (Synopsis: Japan's interest rate hike effect" zombie enterprise crash: the number of bankruptcies this year exceeded 5,000, and the debt reached 1.38 trillion yen) (Background supplement: Japan's interest rate hike is coming!) More than eighty percent of scholars estimate that the Intrerest Rate will be raised to 0.5% by the end of March next year) The results of the House of Representatives election in Japan today (28) were released, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party only won 215 seats, which was not successful in more than half, which was regarded as the biggest defeat of the Liberal Democratic Party since 2009, resulting in the yen falling to a three-month low, and the Japanese stock market unexpectedly strengthened on Monday morning, writing that at the moment, Benchmark's Nikkei 225 index rose 1.54, The Topix index rose above 1.21%. The market believes that Japan's post-election political instability has surged, and the new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba may become a lame duck, which will subsequently stimulate the yen to decline again, and complicate Japan's Central Bank's interest rate hike plan, and Japan's Central Bank President Kazuo Ueda can't sleep. Japan's general election, the Liberal Democratic Party suffered its biggest defeat in 15 years According to the results of the Japanese House of Representatives election reported by NHK, of the 465 seats to be elected, the Liberal Democratic Party won 191 seats, the friendly Citizens' Party won 24 seats, the Liberal Democratic Party not only did not have a single majority, the ruling coalition formed by the two parties was also far from the threshold of half of the 233 seats, so the Japanese media generally described the election of the ruling coalition with a major defeat. When Japan's current Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba admitted defeat, he still avoided talking about his resignation and resignation, and expressed his willingness to actively seek cooperation with opposition parties to retain his ruling power. However, the biggest winner in this election, the largest opposition party, the Founding People's Party, surged 50 seats to 148 seats, and the leader of the party, Yoshihiko Noda, has said that he will strive to replace Shigeru Ishiba and become the new prime minister of Japan, but the outside world is also generally optimistic that the opposition camp can successfully cooperate to form a cabinet, and it is expected that the cabinet formation after the election will make Japan's political circles chaotic, the yen will fall, increasing the uncertainty of policy and economic direction, and Japanese stocks will be in turmoil. Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, said: "There is no doubt that the election result itself is bad for the stock market because of political uncertainty. However, part of the reason for this stock market rebound is that this major risk event has now passed, so there is a sense of relief, and another main reason is the weak yen." The yen briefly hit a low of 153.83 against the dollar on Monday, the lowest level since July 31. The Intrerest rate of Japanese government bonds is generally higher. Source: Google Finance Nomura Securities: Japan's Central Bank will be forced to slow the pace of interest rate hikes Japan's Central Bank's monetary policy meeting on October 30~31, most of the market is still betting that Central Bank will once again stand still, keeping the Intrerest Rate unchanged at 0.25%. According to Reuters, the LDP cannot get past halfway, and a future cabinet government will adopt a more dovish economic policy, forcing Japan's Central Bank to raise interest rates more slowly. The Nomura Securities report analyzes that after the election, the pressure of the Liberal Democratic Party to demand Shigeru Ishiba's resignation increases, and once Shigeru Ishiba resigns and the coalition government expands and includes dovish parties, Sanae Takaichi, a well-known monetary policy "dove" figure who previously announced that he would increase money printing, may be appointed as the new prime minister. "This will cause Japan's Central Bank to delay rate hikes, which in turn will lead to a weaker yen and a steep Intrerest Rate curve for Japanese government bonds." Reflationary, Abenomics-style policies are here to stay." Nomura believes that whether the yen can further depreciate against the dollar exchange rate at 155 will depend on whether the scenario of the Republican sweep in the US election comes true. If the yen weakens further, the Japanese authorities may intervene. Related reports Japan's interest rate hike effect" zombie enterprise crash: the number of bankruptcies this year has exceeded 5,000, and the debt has reached 1.38 trillion yen Japan's Central Bank is hawkish again: inflation will raise interest rates again if it meets expectations, and the yen rides the roller coaster New Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba: Block chain and NFT help develop Japan's local economy, aiming to become Web3 World Center "Japanese Diet Election" The Liberal Democratic Party lost miserably, the yen hit a 3-month low, Shigeru Ishiba is afraid to become the shortest-lived prime minister? This article was first published in BlockTempo "The Most Influential Block Chain News Media".