Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | How is the husband (@vincent 31515173 )

Bitcoin doesn't seem to be the only standout, funds are starting to flow into mainstream alts.

According to Quantify Crypto data, among the top 200 cryptocurrencies with the highest market capitalization in the past 24 hours, 185 tokens have pumped, and only 15 tokens are in a downtrend. Among them, the top 100 cryptocurrencies have seen a pump of over 8%, with ETH breaking through 3400 USDT and a 24-hour increase of 9.7%; SOL breaking through 260 USDT, reaching a new all-time high; ETH Layer 2 OP and ARB both have an increase of over 15%. On social media, many investors exclaimed that the 'altcoin season' has finally arrived.

Has the altcoin season arrived? Odaily Planet Daily will explain the reasons for the rise in altcoin prices and analyze whether it can continue. (Note: The author separates meme on-chain from the altcoin camp, and meme listed on top exchanges is classified as altcoin.)

Why does AltCoin pump?

on-chain famous meme volume drops, community discussion decreases

Previously, as the price of Bitcoin continued to break new highs, AltCoins did not rise but fell, leading to a general pessimism in the market towards AltCoins in this Bull Market, especially for some VC coins facing large-scale unlocking.

Therefore, the market's attention has turned to launching a fairer meme zone, with most of the funds going to on-chain PVP. Former mainstream altcoins have a market cap but liquidity is not as good as a newly popular meme project. For example, the daily trading volume of the top 100 tokens by market cap is not even as high as that of the recently popular CHILL GUY.

However, the high-intensity PVP of MEME also makes people hesitant, and funds return to alts as a result. The pump of alts this time is partly due to the decline in on-chain MEME popularity, including:

1. The volume of well-known memes has begun to decline, such as ai16z, RIF, lowercase ELIZA, etc. These are all representatives of memes that were previously popular. According to GMGN data, most of the volume has already Slump by 50%.
2. The discussion and emotions in the meme community have declined. Some meme groups that the author is in have shifted from discussing which projects to invest in to discussing how to wait for the next wave of meme market.

SEC Chairman Gary Gensler is about to step down, AltCoin welcomes a carnival

Since the approval of BTC and ETH spot ETFs, the crypto market has been continuously rising, and the market is also looking forward to the next mainstream Cryptocurrency.

Today, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst James Seyffart wrote, "Cboe has submitted applications to the U.S. SEC for four Solana Spot ETFs, with the issuers being VanEck, 21Shares, Canary Capital, and Bitwise. If the SEC does not reject the above file applications, the final deadline will be around early August next year."

The application for the Cryptocurrency Spot ETF requires the issuer to prepare two documents, namely S-1 and 19b-4. This time it is the S-1 document, which represents the filing for the listing of SOL Spot ETF. The documents that truly face the difficulty of review are mostly concentrated in 19b-4, so the SOL Spot ETF is currently just getting started.

However, SEC Chairman Gary announced his official resignation from X platform on January 20th. The new SEC chairman may accelerate the review process of the SOL spot ETF, perhaps not prolonging it until the final deadline like the previous BTC and ETH spot ETFs.

In addition, Gary's upcoming departure has brought relief to the heavily regulated AltCoin project. Ripple, which has always had a love-hate relationship with the US SEC, saw its token XRP rise nearly 30% in a single day.

With the promotion of regulatory level and SOL spot ETF, AltCoin's pump is also reasonable.

Can AltCoins keep pumping?

Whether AltCoinpump can continue or not still requires more dimensional observation and verification.

In addition, from historical experience, the market of alts often comes with short-term heat driving, but whether it can truly sustain the price pump depends crucially on the long-term development capability of the project and the overall market environment. Although there is a call for the "alt season" in the current market, if there is a lack of new technological breakthroughs, application landing, or ecological development support, this wave of market may be more of a game of short-term capital rotation rather than a trend pump.

Therefore, whether for institutions or individual investors, it is necessary to remain vigilant in the face of this round of altcoin market. On the one hand, it is important to follow the changes in capital flow in the market, such as key indicators like on-chain Token transfer data; on the other hand, it is also necessary to guard against the risk of pullback after short-term gains, especially the capital trends of the top project party, which may become an important indicator for the subsequent market trends.

At present, the "shanzhai season" is still a game of opportunity and risk, and investors should remain calm.