Good morning ladies & gentleman. I’m gonna keep this short. If you follow me, I tweet a lot of esoteric bullshit like “skate where the puck will be”, or like “buy low attention, sell high attention”, etc. in a manner to wax poetic.

But there’s a reason why I keep repeating that - I believe the crypto market, even after all these years, is so damn inefficient. People continue to chase pumps in a bid to FOMO and feel the immediate dopamine rush of numba go up, only for them to top-signal and have their position underwater 20 minutes later.

The trick to profitable investing, is hence - buy low sell high. Buy when no one’s talking about it, sell when everyone’s talking about it. Buy when it feels like it’s over, sell when you feel like taking a screenshot. Buy cheap, sell expensive.

Hence this article. AI Agents on Solana are on a massive dip; with CEX alts running, and Base taking all the liquidity. There’s talks of SOLETH and SOLBTC having topped, and general doomerism all around. And as such, I’m betting on two things:

1. Solana comes back, we get on-chain round 2
2. AI Agents bounce back

So, now that the context has been set, let me monologue as to how I see things playing out if AI agents on Solana come back. Cue the framework:

Macro:

Hype -> Fundamental -> Utility;

Micro:

Reply guy -> Fundamental-ish -> Applications / Avatars

Macro = The general defining narrative of each cycle; Wave 1 was Render, Akash, Tao, etc. and a lot of general junk popped. Render and Akash were virtually unusuable, I don’t know what FET and OCEAN do (or their evolution, AGI or something like that. Ugh, IDFK) and don’t even get me started on NEAR (The first memecoin launched on it got omega rekt, I was there)

Wave 2 was then Goat, Zerebro, AI16Z - more fundamental applications.

Next, the micro cycle = the types of apps that will spawn. Goat spawned a hellscape of random junk - memesAI, Shoggoth, Project89, etc. The next wave after Goat had more depth - Zerebro now launches music tracks; Lola can trade on-chain, AVB has swarms, etc.

Now both macro & micro are coming to a clash in wave 3 - where I believe we’ll see utility in the form of applications & avatars. What am I talking about? You’re already seeing the beginnings of it; Alch now enables users to build their own apps using AI. Griffain allows you to use an AI agent to control a wallet. AIXBT is everyone’s favourite analyst and enables researchers to 10x their analysooor skills.

Reply guys will be a thing of the past. If all your AI agent can do now is just reply on Twitter, it doesn’t deserve a shot at the top. We’re too used to that; The people always want more ; and so, the next wave will go beyond reply guys to actual interactivity. Avatars are great because they allow you to talk to them & play with them. Apps allow you to build things, and actually use AI beyond just some bot replying you in the comment section.

And so, there’s a couple of ways to play this. Over the past few weeks as the Solana AI space has seen some incredible down-swings, there have been many people hard at work. No doubt if you read my tweets, you’ll know I’ve been bull-posting AI16Z since the FUD at 180mm. I believe AI16Z is the easiest way to get exposure to the entire AI ecosystem, given that Eliza is so widely forked; just like how last cycle people didn’t want to pick individual games to win, and just bet on the gaming chain - I believe AI16Z is the “L1” for AI agents

Strategy 1: Buy large-cap AI that show to do great work ; e.g AI16Z, maybe TAO

Strategy 2: Buy small-cap AI that are building what I talked about

Strategy 2 is what I opt for assymetric returns in this space. There are many AI agents who are currently unloved by the market for reasons I laid out in the first few paragraphs - low attention, rotation games, etc.

These AI guys are actually building the things I mentioned - apps, interactivity, avatars, etc. And these are the ones I’m opting for in the upcoming wave.

And so, that’s it. That’s really all I have to say. Hope this helps. GLHF

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