The Market is Generally Rising, with Optimistic Sentiment, Analyze the New Round of Upward Cycle

2024-10-17, 08:07

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![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17291522321692587449analysis.jpeg)
## [TL；DR]: 
Since October, <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> and <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price/ethereum-eth" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Ethereum</a> prices have started to stabilize and rebound, driving strong gains in sectors such as MEME, AI, and DePIN.

The recent rise in the <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">cryptocurrency market</a> has shown significant differences from previous weak rebounds, providing more market confidence for more optimistic expectations in the future.

## Introduction
After a long downturn, the <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">cryptocurrency market</a> has finally experienced a long-awaited rebound. Since entering October, prices of <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> and <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price/ethereum-eth" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Ethereum</a> have started to stabilize and rebound, driving the recovery of sectors such as MEME and AI. We have also mentioned this in recent blog articles. This article provides an overall review of the recent market sector's rise and looks forward to the future direction for everyone.
 
## Self Verification of the “October Effect”, BTC's Surge Drives Market Rebound
Recently, the cryptocurrency market has finally emerged from the gloom of a downturn and ushered in a strong rebound, with some even claiming that this is a self-validation of the market under the “October effect.”

Specifically, BTC prices have been fluctuating upwards since September but have always been constrained by pressure at the $60,000 mark. After entering October, the price continued to rise to around $68,000. As of the writing date, BTC has risen to the daily technical trend line pressure level, and once it effectively breaks through this resistance, the upward space will be opened.
 ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17291531151.jpeg)
Source: Gate.io 
 
Meanwhile, ETH also rebounded, but as we have mentioned multiple times in our blog posts, its upward momentum is weaker than that of BTC. There are signs of improvement, but it is not consistent. Currently, the highest rebound is around $2,700, with the strongest pressure level of $2,800 above.
 ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17291531332.jpeg)
Source: Gate.io 
 
With BTC's stabilization and upward trend, the counterfeit sector has also begun to rebound, giving the long-dormant market a rare respite. Meme, as the absolute main driving force of this bull market, still performs well. Base Meme and <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price/solana-sol" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Solana</a> Meme have risen by 17.9% and 12.7% in the past seven days, respectively. Popular tokens include BOME, TURBO, MEW, SPX, BRETT, DEGEN, etc.

In addition, emerging sectors such as DePIN, DID, and Fans Token are leading the market, with gains of 23.7%, 15.8%, and 8.5% in the past seven days, respectively. Meanwhile, niche sectors such as cross-chain and <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/web3" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Web3</a> infrastructure have also begun to be sought after by funds, with gains of up to 160.5% and 20.8% in the past 7 days, respectively.
 ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17291531543.jpeg)
Source: CoinGecko 
 
In short, given the general upward trend, market <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price/optimism-op" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">optimism</a> is actively returning. The market value of cryptocurrency has also risen from 2.148 trillion US dollars to 2.416 trillion US dollars in the past month. The market value of the counterfeit sector is only one step away from the peak of the last bull market.
 
## Interpreting the New Speculation Clues of the Strong Sectors in this Round
This bull market has given birth to new sectors such as AI, DePIN, RWA, DeSci, etc. However, overall, the Meme sector has evolved into a completely new and complex system, and is rarely affected by the overall environment to fall into a long-term downturn. The recent leading rebound also reflects the dominant position of the Meme sector in the market.

Meme: The development trend of tokens in the MEME sector during this bull market is highly dependent on market sentiment and traffic, exhibiting complex and ever-changing characteristics. Starting from last year's popularity of PEPE driving Meme enthusiasm, with various public chain in_script_ions appearing at the end of the year, the decentralized coin issuance boom dominated by BOME and SLERF in March this year, followed by internet celebrities, cute pets, and vocabulary Memes, such as MOTHER and MOODENG, as well as recently controversial same name uppercase and lowercase Meme and revived cult style Meme such as NEIRO and SPX, it can be said that the evolution of Meme projects on Ethereum, <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price/solana-sol" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Solana</a>, Base, and other chains has gradually improved, no longer being a nonmainstream sector in the previous bull and fishtail market.
 ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17291531894.jpeg)
Source: Gate.io 
 
DePIN: The concept of DePIN originated from a new concept proposed by industry-leading institution Messari in its research report "The DePIN Sector Map" in early 2023. It is defined as "deploying physical infrastructure and hardware networks in the real world using encrypted economic protocols."

Although the DePIN concept had limited initial popularity after its introduction, it has become a hot topic in the industry as the <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Crypto market</a> gradually recovers and investors' interest in the <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/web3" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Web3</a> field increases, especially at the Hong Kong Web3 Carnival in April 2023.

Multiple DePIN projects gradually emerged from the conceptual stage in the second half of 2023. DePIN concept tokens represented by <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price/helium-hnt" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Helium</a> Mobile, Honey, etc., have performed outstandingly in the market and become one of the hottest tracks outside of in_script_ions.

Recently, the DePIN sector has once again turned red, with impressive performances from <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price/the-graph-grt" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">The Graph</a> (GRT), AIOZ Network (AIOZ), IoTX (IOTX), and others.
 ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17291532145.jpeg)
Source: CoinGecko
 
As of the writing date, the total market cap of the DePIN sector has reached $23.8 billion. According to Messari's research report, the DePIN market size is expected to reach $3.5 trillion by 2028, indicating that there is still significant potential for growth.

AI sector: Starting from the release of the generative artificial intelligence product ChatGPT in early 2023, the field of encrypted AI has begun to emerge, with tokens in sectors such as <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price/fetch-ai-fet" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Fetch.ai</a> (FET), <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price/near-protocol-near" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Near Protocol</a> (NEAR), Worldcoin (WLD), and others receiving market hype.

By 2024, the continued expansion of the AI market has driven the demand for infrastructure such as DePIN networks, thus projects such as io.net (IO), <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price/render-rndr" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Render</a> (<a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price/render-rndr" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">RENDER</a>), Akash Network (AKT) that gather decentralized CPUs/GPUs to provide AI computing power support are receiving widespread attention.

In addition, BitTensor (TAO), Triathon (GROW), and others have also made positive progress in decentralizing data privacy, and their recent coin prices have performed well.
 ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17291532356.jpeg)
Source: Gate.io 
 
It is worth mentioning that using AI to issue coins can bypass real-world regulations. Recently, the MEME of AI concepts, such as TURBO and GOAT, have continued to rise, indicating that the crypto ecosystem combined with AI is showing an increasingly diversified and efficient development trend.

Fans Token: Fan Tokens are cryptocurrencies that combine attributes such as MEME, NFT, and real-world adoption, typically issued by teams, clubs, or celebrities, with the aim of providing exclusive membership benefits to their fans. We also specifically discussed this sector in our article "[Are Fan Tokens Driving a Strong Recovery in the MEME Sector?](https://www.gate.io/blog/4597/4597 "Are Fan Tokens Driving a Strong Recovery in the MEME Sector?")" released this week, which will not be repeated here.

As of the writing date, the market value of this sector has risen by 5.8% in the past 7 days, with a total market value of nearly 300 million US dollars.
 
## Spot ETFs Experienced Continuous Net Inflows, Wide Range Volatility is Coming to an End
Looking back, behind this rebound in the market is the combined effect of multiple favorable factors. Firstly, Smart Money, closely related to the cryptocurrency market, provided us with clues. As the Bitcoin market gradually stabilizes under the support of mining shutdown prices, the trustee of Mt. Gox has extended the repayment deadline for creditors to October 31, 2025, easing market concerns about selling. As a result, some institutional funds have begun to <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price/flow-flow" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">flow</a> back into the cryptocurrency market. In October, nearly 20,000 BTC were deposited into BTC spot ETFs, and ETH spot ETFs have also gradually begun to receive funds, highlighting the improvement of current fund sentiment.
 ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17291532777.jpeg)
Source: coinglass
 
Of course, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut policy remains an important macro factor affecting the rebound of Bitcoin prices. Interest rate cuts usually bring more liquidity, and investors seek high-return assets in this context. As a high-risk and high-return asset, Bitcoin has become a popular choice for capital inflows. However, the recent rise of Bitcoin is still within a wide range of fluctuations, reflecting that users and institutions are adopting a wait-and-see attitude toward future market trends, and they are looking for more powerful economic data and policy signals. In short, the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut policy on the market remains long-term and gradual.

In addition, the November US presidential election is still disrupting the cryptocurrency market. Trump once proposed to use Bitcoin or "crypto check" to pay US treasury bond to avoid a debt crisis. Although this may seem absurd, it does enhance market confidence in cryptocurrencies. In addition, current Vice President Harris has also made commitments to support a cryptocurrency regulatory framework and provide more investment certainty for black Americans who own or have previously owned digital assets to strengthen contact with black male voters. This news also has a certain boosting effect on the trend of digital currencies.
 ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17291532988.jpeg)
Source: Polymarket 
 
Of course, as we discussed in the article "[Does it Fall Every September? Everything You Know about the September Market Trend](https://www.gate.io/blog/4486/does-it-fall-every-september-everything-you-know-about-the-september-market-trend "Does it Fall Every September? Everything You Know about the September Market Trend")" that every September will lead to a decline has become popular, the "October Effect" that every October will rise is highly anticipated.

As shown in the figure below, historical data indicates that Bitcoin usually experiences a strong seasonal market in the second half of October. This seasonal pattern has indeed provided some support for Bitcoin prices' rise.
 ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17291533109.jpeg)
Source: coinglass 
 
In summary, the recent rise in the <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">crypto market</a> showed distinct characteristics that differed from previous weak rebounds, providing more market confidence and more optimistic expectations for the future. We will continue to monitor this.

<div class="blog-details-info">
<div>Author:**Charle Y.**, Gate.io Researcher
<div>Translator:Joy Z.
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions.All investments carry inherent risks; prudent decision-making is essential.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
</div>