Daily News | The Iran-Israel conflict disturbed the market, and Bitcoin was supported and stabilized near $60,000

2024-10-02, 05:03

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##Crypto Daily Digest: BTC ETF Sees $76.71 Million Net Inflow; ETH ETF Receives $7 Million
According to data from Lookonchain, on October 1, 10 <a href="/id/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> ETFs had a net inflow of 1,224 BTC (about $76.71 million), and 9 <a href="/id/price/ethereum-eth" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Ethereum</a> ETFs had a net inflow of 2,770 ETH (about $6.99 million).
 
###The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25BP in November is 63.3%
According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed reducing interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 63.3%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut  is 36.7%. The probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points by December is 32.6%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points is 49.6%; the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points is 17.8%.
 
###Iran launches massive missile attack on Israel
Last night, Iran launched a large-scale missile attack on Israel. Most of the missiles were intercepted by Israel, but some missiles successfully hit the target. Israel warned that it would respond, and the United States expressed its full support for Israel's self-defense.
 
###In the past 4 hours, the total liquidation of the entire network reached $237 million, mainly in long orders
According to coinglass data, the total liquidation of the entire network rose to $237 million in the past 4 hours, of which long positions were liquidated for $219 million and short positions were liquidated for $18.22 million.
 
###Stablecoin protocol Usual reaches cooperation with LayerZero, and the protocol will enter the Layer 2
The stablecoin protocol Usual reached a cooperation with LayerZero. With the help of LayerZero's cross-chain interoperability, the Usual protocol will introduce the Layer2 network and achieve faster transactions, lower fees and seamless cross-chain functions.
   
##Market Trends: Iran-Israel conflict intensifies, BTC fell to $60,000, and the market returns to panic
###Mainstream Coins
-Ethereum restaking protocol Eigenlayer (EIGEN) was listed yesterday. The 24-hour total network trading volume reached $1 billion, $EIGEN  price was temporarily reported at $4, and the full circulation market value was $6.8 billion.
 
-The high-performance Layer1 public blockchain SUI remained relatively strong despite yesterday's large-scale unlocking and a general market decline, but it is currently approaching the previous high pressure position, so be aware of the risk of chasing high prices.
 
-Benefiting from the listing on a large exchange, $DEGEN has risen sharply, with a 24-hour increase of 83% and a circulating market value of $137 million. Degen has reshaped the Farcaster social system as a reward for high-quality content creators. It is the leading MEME on the Base chain together with $BRETT.
 
###Market Hostspts
-BTC has fallen for three consecutive days due to market panic caused by the Iran-Israel conflict. Yesterday, it fell to around $60,000. The market may have significant fluctuations. Please be aware of the risks.
 
-ETH has fallen for 4 consecutive days, with a 24-hour drop of 5.48%. Compared with BTC, it has fallen into a weak trend again. The issuance of Eigenlayer (EIGEN) seems to have failed to open up more imagination space for the Ethereum ecosystem. With the lackluster fundamentals, the market is more interested in competitors such as SOL and SUI.
 
-As Bitcoin's decline widened yesterday, altcoins experienced a general decline. A series of popular TON blockchain game MEME tokens listed recently fell sharply, while SOL blockchain $POPCAT, $MOODENG and others were relatively resistant to declines, with 24-hour increases of 2.3% and 11.4% respectively.
 
##Macro: Iran launched missiles in retaliation against Israel, markets fall down
The current market environment is complex and volatile. The uncertainty of the extent of the Fed’s interest rate cuts and unexpected events are disturbing the market.
 
On this Monday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks lowered market expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in November, causing short-term volatility in the U.S. stock market. However, in the end, the three major indexes still closed slightly higher, and the overall performance in September was strong. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both hit new closing highs and achieved five consecutive monthly increases.
 
Although there is debate in the short term about the extent of the Fed's interest rate cuts, in the long run, it has become a market consensus that the Fed has a lot of room for interest rate cuts, which will be beneficial to long-term liquidity easing for global stock markets and crypto markets.
 
However, last night Iran launched a missile attack on Israel in military retaliation, and short-term panic quickly had a price impact on the US stock and crypto markets, causing the market to fall. From historical experience, conflicts in the Middle East often lead to a fall in asset prices such as the <a href="/id/price" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">crypto market</a>.
 
##Conclusion
Generally speaking，the Bitcoin market is currently showing positive signs, with spot ETFs maintaining a net inflow trend, stablecoin minting rising, which is a clear signal of capital inflow. In September, Bitcoin closed up 7.35%, a great achievement, and historical data shows that after closing up in September, the upward trend often continues until the end of the year, so the market performance in October is also worth looking forward to.
 
However, the market is also facing multiple challenges, including the uncertainty of the Fed's policy and the geopolitical tensions caused by Iran's missile attack on Israel. These short-term factors have caused short-term disturbances to the market. Although the Fed's long-term interest rate cut space is beneficial to the market, investors still need to be cautious in dealing with the current complex and volatile market environment.

<div class="blog-details-info">
<div>Author:** Carl Y.**, Gate.io Researcher
<div>Translator: Carl Y.
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
</div>

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