Daily News | BTC Oscillated and Fell, with a Probability of 83.3% for the Fed to Cut Interest Rates by 25BP in November

2024-10-11, 04:46

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## Crypto Daily Digest: BTC ETFs continue to flow out, with nearly half of traditional hedge funds entering the crypto field
According to Farside Investor data, yesterday's net outflow from US spot <a href="/es/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> ETFs was $120 million, with $10.81 million from IBIT and $33.79 million from Fidelity FBTC.

Yesterday, the US <a href="/es/price/ethereum-eth" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Ethereum</a> ETF had a net inflow of $3.27 million, of which BlackRock ETHA had a net inflow of $18.07 million.

**The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25BP in November is 83.3%, and the probability of not cutting interest rates is 16.7%**

On October 10 Eastern Time, data released by the US Department of Labor showed that the year-on-year growth rate of the US CPI in September decreased from 2.5% in August to 2.4%, marking a six-month decline and a month on month increase of 0.2%, slightly higher than expected; The core CPI in September increased by 3.3% year-on-year and 0.3% month on month, slightly exceeding expectations. According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points by November is 83.3%, and the probability of maintaining current interest rates unchanged is 16.7%.

**The holdings of options fell to a new low in 23 years, and there may be market trends before and after the US election**

According to data from Greeks.live, 18,000 BTC options have expired with a Put Call Ratio of 0.91, a maximum pain point of $62,000, and a nominal value of $1.1 billion. 212,000 ETH options have expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.4, a maximum pain point of $2,450, and a nominal value of $510 million.

Cryptocurrencies continue to be weak, with fierce competition for the key point of $60,000, and ETH also hovering around the long-term support line of $2,300. Market volatility may be imminent. The market in the first two weeks of the fourth quarter of this year was not good, and the options market was also relatively sluggish. Currently, options holdings have fallen to a new low in 23 years. But the sluggish market also nurtures new trading opportunities. Currently, BTC's flat IV on November 8th is only 50%, which is very suitable for low-level positions and some mid to long term bullish positions. This week, the bulk bullish trading has gradually become active, and there is a high possibility of a market trend before and after the US election.

**Bloomberg: Nearly half of traditional hedge funds entered the crypto field**

According to Bloomberg, the Global Crypto Hedge Fund Report released by the Alternative Investment Management Association (AIMA) and PwC on Thursday shows that 47% of hedge funds traded in traditional markets have entered digital assets, up from 29% in 2023 and 37% in 2022. Among the funds that have already invested in cryptocurrency, 67% plan to maintain the same level of crypto capital, while the remaining funds plan to increase their investments by the end of 2024.

According to the report, although many hedge funds initially entered the crypto field through spot market trading of tokens, they are now increasingly adopting more complex strategies. Among the funds participating in crypto trading, 58% traded derivatives in 2024, up from 38% in 2023, while the proportion of funds traded in the spot market decreased from a peak of 69% last year to 25% this year.

”The results of this year's report show that confidence has been steadily recovering over the past year," James Delaney, AIMA Asset Management Regulatory Director, said in an interview. “The regulatory clarity that has emerged globally is indeed boosting confidence in this asset class.” Due to the volatile prices of cryptocurrencies, funds willing to invest often have profitable trading opportunities.

## Market Trends: Uni launched Unichain, MAGA and FIGHT rose
### Market Hotspots
UNI has risen, and on the surface of the news, <a href="/es/price/uniswap-uni" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Uniswap</a> has launched the layer 2 network Unichain based on the op stack. Unichain is a fast and decentralized <a href="/es/price/optimism-op" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Optimism</a> super chain L2, with its testnet launched today and the mainnet expected to be launched later this year;

Fan tokens such as PSG, BAR, CITY, JUV, etc. tend to rise when the market is generally declining, and their prices are generally not sustainable;

Puffer Finance, a re-staking protocol, will receive a token airdrop on October 14, with a total of 1 billion tokens. Puffer Finance is a native liquidity re-staking platform built on EigenLayer.

### Mainstream Coins
BTC fluctuated and fell, currently adjusting around $60,500, with BTC ETF experiencing net outflows for several consecutive days;

ETH is around the $2,400 mark, and its short-term trend is still uncertain. We need to wait for a large inflow of ETH ETFs before it can resume its upward trend;

Altcoins have generally declined, while political concept tokens such as MAGA and FIGHT have collectively risen in the United States.

## Macroeconomics: The three major US stock indexes closed down, and the market is focusing on the future interest rate movements of the Federal Reserve
The three major indexes of the US stock market collectively closed down, with the S&P 500 index falling 0.21% to 5,780.05 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.14% to 42,454.12 points, and the Nasdaq index falling 0.05% to 18,282.05 points. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is 4.09%, while the 2-year Treasury yield, most sensitive to the Federal Reserve policy rate, is 3.98%.

After a series of unexpected data indicating the strength of the US economy in recent times, traders have significantly lowered their expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. In the data dependent mode, the Federal Reserve will be more cautious, and there is no doubt that it will continue to cut interest rates in the future, but the specific path is highly uncertain. For the November meeting, the focus of the market has shifted from whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points to whether it will cut interest rates by 25 basis points or not.

<div class="blog-details-info">
<div>Author:**Icing**, Gate.io Researcher
<div>Translator:Joy Z.
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
</div>

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