Daily News | The SEC website released Bitcoin spot ETF application filings; BTC breaking through $47,000 in the short term; Standard Chartered Bank predicts that BTC will reach $200,000

2024-01-09, 03:50

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## Crypto Daily Digest: SEC released Bitcoin spot ETF application filings, Standard Chartered predicts BTC will reach $200,000
The passage of <a href="/ar/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> spot ETFs is getting closer and closer, and Bitcoin prices are no longer sustainable.

Bloomberg analyst James Seyfhart tweeted that the updated 19b-4 documents from Bitcoin spot ETF applicants last Friday have been gradually released on the SEC website, indicating an important step for ETF approval.

But this process usually takes a few days to two weeks, and the SEC is accelerating the process this week. According to Gate.io market data, Bitcoin has briefly broken through $47000 and has risen by over 7% in the past 24 hours. It is now quoted at $46,735.8. With the rise of Bitcoin prices, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings have floating profits of over $3 billion. Currently, it holds a total of 189150 Bitcoins, with an average purchase price of $31,168 per coin.

According to the official website of the SEC, multiple fund applicants have submitted updated Bitcoin spot ETF S-1 documents, with fee standards ranging from 0.24% to 0.5%.

According to the latest revised S-1 document, VanEck has injected $72.5 million in seed funds into its Bitcoin spot ETF. BlackRock has injected $10 million in seed funds into its Bitcoin spot ETF. Seed funds refer to banks and securities firms investing in the purchase of constituent shares (in this case Bitcoin) in exchange for ETF shares that can be traded in the public market on the first day of listing. Bloomberg analyst James Seyfhart believes that injecting seed funds may mean that ETFs will be launched soon.

Bitwise has injected $500,000 in seed funds into its Bitcoin spot ETF. Meanwhile, once approved, Pantera Capital plans to inject $200 million into Bitwise's Bitcoin spot ETF. But this is only an investment intention and does not have legal binding force.

On January 9th, according to the latest news, Perianne, founder and CEO of Chamber of Digital Commerce, posted on social media that the SEC has just released supplementary opinions on the S-1 documents of potential applicants.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyfhart confirmed this news and stated that there will be more amendments tomorrow, but he does not believe that this additional opinion is a delay signal. This actually demonstrates the speed at which the SEC handles these transactions. It is almost unheard of for multiple Bitcoin spot ETF applicants to submit documents to the SEC in the morning and receive comments on the same day.

The SEC has confirmed receipt of proposed amendments to the rules for Bitcoin spot ETFs from institutions such as Invesco Galaxy, Valkyrie, Franklin, Ark 21Shares, Fidelity, Vaneck, Hashdex, Wisdomtree, Bitwise, etc.

The BitVol (Bitcoin Volatility) index, launched by financial index company T3 Index in collaboration with Bitcoin option trading platform LedgerX, rose to 75.84 yesterday, with a daily increase of 2.21%, close to the highest level in a year (reaching 76.99 on March 19, 2023).

The BitVol index measures the 30 day expected implied volatility derived from tradable Bitcoin option prices, with an annualized volatility of 75% for Bitcoin prices. This is a relatively high level of volatility, indicating that market participants expect Bitcoin prices to experience significant fluctuations in the next month.

Implied volatility refers to the volatility implied by the actual option price. It uses the B-S option pricing formula to calculate the actual price of the option and its volatility, volatility derived by substituting other parameters into the formula. The actual price of options is formed by competition among numerous option traders, therefore, the implied volatility represents the market participants' views and expectations of the market's future, and is considered the closest to the true volatility at that time.

DWF Labs founder Andrei Grachev stated on the X platform that there has been a lot of discussion about ETFs recently, but short-term market fluctuations are not really important, and he firmly believes that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 in this cycle. In addition, Andrei Grachev stated that his personal focus is on projects with a large audience and good fundamentals that have not yet been listed, including games and meme coins.

According to the latest news from Standard Chartered Bank, these funds may bring in inflows of $50 to $100 billion this year. Therefore, the bank believes that the price of Bitcoin may reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. Standard Chartered Bank also expects the SEC to approve spot <a href="/ar/price/ethereum-eth" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Ethereum</a> trading platform traded funds (ETFs) in the second quarter of this year. However, based on past prediction experiences, there is currently no accurate prediction.

As Bitcoin becomes increasingly recognized by the mainstream, more and more merchants are accepting BTC payments. Yesterday, it was reported that Mercari, also known as "Japanese Goofish," is the largest second-hand commodity trading platform in Japan. Since its establishment in 2013, it has had a monthly active user base of 22 million as of July 2023.

Mercari plans to start accepting Bitcoin payments from June this year, which will be processed through its Tokyo subsidiary Melcoin to convert all Bitcoin payments into Japanese yen, ensuring that sellers receive fiat currency and buyers can choose to use Bitcoin payments. The price of the product will be announced in Japanese yen, but customers can choose Bitcoin as the payment method on the website.

## Today’s Main Token Trends
### BTC
![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/1704786481BTC.png)
The market tested the $47,250 level again this week, with the outcome of the ETF decision expected mid-month affecting market sentiment. A cautious strategy is recommended, with positioning to target $47,990 and $52,050 if positive news prevails. On the downside, a four-hour chart indicates a potential retest of $40,400 if a bottom is formed.

### ETH
![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/1704786504ETH.png)
The short-term four-hour trend has seen a second upward move, oscillating within the range of $2,135 to $2,381. Short-term strategies can take advantage of quick fluctuations within this range. A conservative approach involves waiting for a breakout above the previous high of $2,450, targeting $2,838 in the short term. Fibonacci retracement levels can guide exits in the short term.

### WLD
![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/1704786520WLD.png)
The short-term trend has risen from a low of $1.01 to a high of $4.20, followed by a substantial pullback to the $2.40 support level. Long-term strategies suggest establishing positions between $2.40 and $2.46, anticipating a push towards previous highs at $5.85, $8.79, and $13.60.

## Macro: Gold fell below the 2020 threshold, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in February is 95.3%
According to a December survey by the Federal Reserve of New York, consumer expectations for inflation over the next year decreased from 3.36% in the previous month to 3.01% in December, a three-year low. The data released by the Federal Reserve on Monday showed a total increase of $23.8 billion in consumer credit in November. Revolving credit, including credit cards, increased by $19.1 billion in November, marking the largest growth since March 2022.

The market continues to digest the impact of its released data and is waiting for this week's inflation data to provide a new catalyst for interest rate cuts. The US dollar index overall fluctuated sideways, ultimately closing down 0.15% at 102.28. The US Treasury yield slightly declined, with a V-shaped reversal in the 10-year US Treasury yield. It fell below the 4% mark during trading and closed at 4.027%; The two-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to the Federal Reserve's policy interest rates, closed at 4.375%.

The trend of spot gold was sluggish, once falling below the 2020 level, reaching a new low since December 18th last year. There was a rebound in the US market, narrowing the intraday decline and ultimately closing down 0.86% at $2028.03 per ounce. Spot silver closed 0.38% lower at $23.103 per ounce. Spot palladium fell below the $1000/ounce mark for the first time since December 14th last year.

Due to Saudi Arabia's significant reduction in crude oil prices and an increase in OPEC production, investors have been concerned about oversupply in the market despite weak demand, leading to a sharp drop in international crude oil prices. WTI crude oil fell 4.13% to $70.84 per barrel, marking the largest daily decline since November 16 last year; Brent crude oil fell 3.22% to $76.27 per barrel, marking the largest daily decline since December 12th last year.

The three major US stock indexes strengthened unilaterally throughout the day, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.58%, the S&P 500 Index up 1.4%, the Nasdaq up 2.2%, and chip stocks leading the market.

A few hours ago, two officials from the Federal Reserve released their hawkish stance again. In a prepared speech to the South Carolina Bankers Association in Colombia, Bauman said, "If inflation continues to decline over time and approaches our 2% target, then it will eventually be appropriate to start lowering our policy interest rates to prevent policies from becoming too strict."

And it stated that there is still a risk of upward inflation, including a relaxed geopolitical and financial environment. The appropriate timing for interest rate cuts has not yet been reached. If inflation stagnates or reverses, they will continue to be willing to raise policy interest rates at future Federal Reserve meetings.

Another 2024 FOMC vote committee member and Atlanta Fed Chairman, Bostek, reiterated his belief that two 25 basis point rate cuts before the end of this year are appropriate. The Federal Reserve is expected to make its first rate cut in the third quarter, and stated that the current rate of reduction is "appropriate". Whether the rate of reduction should change is an open question.

According to CME's Federal Reserve Watch, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in the 5.25% - 5.50% range in February is 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4.7%. The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged by March is 38.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 59.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 2.8%.

<div class="blog-details-info">
<div>Author:**Byron B.**, Gate.io Researcher
<div>Translator:Joy Z.
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
</div>

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