[//]:content-type-MARKDOWN-DONOT-DELETE ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/1732602393deepanalysis.png) ## [TL；DR]: Bitcoin is approaching $100,000, and the crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen to a peak of 94. However, the performance of the Altcoin market is inconsistent, and it has not fully risen. Some well-established Altcoins have even fallen into silence. In past bull markets, there has been a significant phenomenon of replenishment and rotation in the Altcoin sector. With the rise of mainstream coins such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, various Altcoin tracks will experience explosive growth at different stages. However, the current problem of insufficient liquidity and lack of new funds in the Altcoin market is becoming increasingly prominent. In the future, with the gradual release of liquidity and the increasing attention of investors to emerging markets, the general rise season of the entire Altcoin market may come again. ## Introduction With Bitcoin hitting a historic high of $99,550 for the first time last week and approaching the $100,000 mark, market enthusiasm has once again surged, and many institutions are generally optimistic about its future performance. However, in this context, whether Altcoins can still usher in the previous "Altcoin season" has become a hot topic of discussion, after all, this bull market has rarely seen a comprehensive rise, and even some well-established Altcoins have fallen into marginal assets and fallen into silence. This article will delve into why the Altcoin season is becoming increasingly difficult and look forward to potential opportunities in the future. ## Bitcoin Approaches $100,000, GameFi and Other Relay Meme Rise Recently, driven by favorable policies such as Trump's upcoming inauguration, investor confidence has significantly increased, and the crypto market has ushered in a new round of upward trend. This also matches our forward-looking bullish view in our blog article "[Trump Won the US Election, Will Crypto Market Embrace Bull Market Frenzy Again?](https://www.gate.io/blog/4689/trump-won-the-us-election-will-crypto-market-embrace-bull-market-frenzy-again "Trump Won the US Election, Will Crypto Market Embrace Bull Market Frenzy Again?")” As of the writing date, the Bitcoin price has continued to rise and has reached a peak of $99,550, just one step away from the $100,000 mark. Meanwhile, investor sentiment is extremely greedy, with the crypto fear and greed index rising to a high of 94, reaching a three-year high. ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17326026251.jpeg) Source: Gate.io Historical data shows that Bitcoin has demonstrated strong explosive power during similar situations, such as the price surge after Thanksgiving in 2017. Several analysts predict that during the weekend, when institutional investors are closed, the "panic buying" sentiment of retail investors may further push up the price of Bitcoin, potentially surpassing $100,000 or even higher. They pointed out that in the context of global wealth growth, the value of the Bitcoin network effect will continue to increase, and there is huge room for growth. Meanwhile, the Altcoin market has shown a pulsating upward trend, and the momentum of the previous bull market's overall rise has not been reproduced. According to the author's observation, the most trending Meme sector has temporarily stalled recently, while tokens in the metaverse, gaming, and AI sectors have risen in succession. This highlights the structural bull market situation where liquidity has not yet fully diversified and Panasonic's market speculation has rotated. ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17326026492.jpeg) Source: SoSoValue ## The Boosting Rhythm of Altcoin Sectors in Past Bull Markets In fact, in the past bull market, the replenishment and rotation of Altcoin sectors have been particularly significant, bringing abundant opportunities for investors. Taking the period from the end of 2020 to the first half of 2021 as an example, Bitcoin was the first to pull the market and set a new historical high, while Ethereum caught up with the pace in the middle and later stages and started a stronger main uptrend. During this period, various Altcoin tracks were also launched, such as GT, BNB, and other utility coins, as well as Doge and SHIB on the Meme track, all of which experienced explosive growth at specific stages. Public chain tracks such as SOL, AVAX, FTM, etc. have also emerged in the second wave of the market, followed by gaming, metaverse tracks, and some DeFi projects, all of which have started their main upward trend. ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17326026743.jpeg) Source: Gate.io In the second half of 2021, with the secondary rise of BTC and ETH, the general upward trend of the Altcoin sector reappeared. The SHIB and other projects in the Meme track continue to make efforts, and the public chain track also maintains strong momentum, while the gaming, metaverse, and NFT tracks are also not to be outdone, breaking new heights one after another. Notably, the DeFi track, which catalyzed the bull market, began to fail at this stage, and decentralized storage platforms such as FIL and XCH. "Doomsday Tank" platforms, such as EOS, ETC, and BSV, were unable to continue their gains in the first half of the year. ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17326026894.jpeg) Source: BLOCKCHAINCENTER.NET Entering the bull market cycle from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024, the phenomenon of supplementary price movements in the Altcoin sector is still evident. With the synchronous rise of BTC and ETH, new trending tracks such as AI, Ethereum's L2 layer, and modular blockchain have emerged one after another, receiving high praise and boosting prices. At this stage, new narratives emerged one after another in the public blockchain, RWA, and Meme tracks with in_script_ions mainly based on Ordi and decentralized coin issuance mainly based on BOME. However, the performance of DeFi, metaverse, gaming, DAO and other tracks is not outstanding. It is not difficult to see from the above that the phenomenon of the Altcoin sector's rebound rotation in past bull markets has a certain regularity. Under the guidance of mainstream coins such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, each Altcoin track will experience explosive growth at different stages according to its own development situation and market popularity. However, since 2023, the Altcoin sector has indeed stopped reproducing the grand scene of a comprehensive general rise. ## Will Alt Season Still Come? Despite the ever-changing history, the arrival of the Altcoin season is closely related to the distribution of liquidity. In the first two bull markets, Ethereum played a central role, and the outbreak of ICO and DeFi drove the prosperity of the two rounds of Altcoin markets. However, in this bull market, despite Bitcoin constantly approaching the $100,000 mark, Ethereum and most Altcoins appear to lack momentum. We believe that this may be attributed to the high concentration of funds in Bitcoin driven by spot ETFs, which has significantly reduced the share of funds flowing into Altcoins. The launch of financial products such as spot ETFs and options this year has further consolidated Bitcoin's position as a global capital safe haven, thereby weakening the attractiveness of various Altcoins. ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17326027195.jpeg) Source: @0xENAS As various sectors mature, cryptocurrency, like the stock market, will inevitably move towards differentiation, which is a sign of the market's gradual maturity. We have seen some high-quality assets, such as SOL, SUI, DOGE, etc., receiving more financial attention. However, for most other Altcoins, the problems of lack of new narrative, insufficient liquidity, and lack of new funds are becoming increasingly prominent, and it is difficult to achieve a comeback solely relying on the hard work of old players. In addition, the characteristic of “speculating on new coins rather than old coins” in the industry has also led to a liquidity gap between new and old coins. Looking ahead to the future, we have noticed that the macro background is also creating conditions for the arrival of the Altcoin season, and the Altcoin index in the below image is at 53, indicating that the market may be brewing greater fluctuations. After experiencing the interest rate hike cycle in 2022, the suspension of interest rate hikes in September 2023, coupled with speculation and consolidation trading of BTC spot ETFs, the market liquidity, although limited, is gradually shifting towards easing. As a result, with the start of this year's interest rate cut cycle and Trump's friendly attitude towards crypto-taking office, market liquidity is expected to be further released. ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17326027556.jpeg) Source: BLOCKCHAINCENTER.NET In short, with the gradual release of liquidity and the increasing attention of investors to emerging markets, the general rise season of the entire Altcoin market may once again come. For radical investors, actively laying out high-quality Altcoin projects may lead to more lucrative returns in a bull market, but it is also necessary to focus on discernment and analysis, and maintain a cautious operating philosophy.

Author:**Charle Y.**, Gate.io Researcher

Translator:Joy Z.

\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions. All investments carry inherent risks; prudent decision-making is essential.

\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.

The Market Situation is Bullish, Will the Altcoin Season Come Again?