Daily News | BTC Surpassed Silver to Become the Second Largest Commodity ETF Asset in the United States; Institutions Predict that ETH May Exceed BTC in the Middle of A Bull Market

2024-01-19, 04:01

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## Crypto Daily Digest: <a href="/ar/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> surpasses silver to become the second largest commodity in the United States, will <a href="/ar/price/ethereum-eth" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Ethereum</a> surpass Bitcoin?

According to data from Capital15C, the size of <a href="/ar/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> ETFs has rapidly expanded, including recently listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, with a total value of $27.9 billion, equivalent to 647,651 BTCs, of which Grayscale holds approximately 600000 BTCs. According to etfdb.com, the "Broad Diversified" asset class includes 22 ETFs with an AUM of $12.826 billion. Ranked third is silver, which includes five ETFs with an AUM of $11.546 billion. Although BTC currently does not appear on its ETF list, if added in the future, Bitcoin has ranked second in AUM calculation, becoming the second largest commodity in the United States.

Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Investment Management, said in an interview that she believes a Bitcoin could one day be worth $1 million, but not very soon. Gold is an asset worth trillions of dollars, and we do believe that Bitcoin will benefit greatly from it.

Cathie Wood explained how Bitcoin can reach a price of $1 million per coin, stating that this comparison not only involves value, but also the fundamental role that Bitcoin can play as a decentralized and private alternative to traditional currency. In addition, Bitcoin plays a crucial role in emerging markets, as it can hedge against unstable monetary and fiscal policies of individuals and institutions. Most emerging markets will use things like Bitcoin as insurance.

Wood believes that Bitcoin represents a new era in finance - the first global, digital, and decentralized currency system. This is a breakthrough progress, especially considering the closure of the US Gold Window in 1971.

After the Bitcoin spot ETF was approved, it has gradually attracted high regulatory attention from countries around the world recently.

Yesterday, Sherrod Brown, Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, stated that the committee will re-investigate money laundering in the crypto industry "in the coming weeks." Brown added that it remains to be seen whether the policies under discussion will be implemented as a series of independent bills or a package of bills.

On Wednesday, EU policy makers reached a temporary agreement on part of a comprehensive regulatory plan to combat money laundering, which will enable all crypto companies to conduct due diligence on their clients. The Anti Money Laundering Regulations (AMLR) are a comprehensive effort to combat sanctions evasion and money laundering. It includes creating a single rulebook and establishing a regulatory body that will also have regulatory authority over the crypto industry.

Yesterday, a spokesperson for the Monetary Authority of Singapore stated that the Collective Investment Schemes (CIS) that Singapore retail investors can participate in are regulated by the Securities and Futures Act and cover ETFs. The types of assets they can invest in are limited. Currently, Bitcoin and other digital payment tokens (cryptocurrencies) (DPTs) are not eligible assets for retail CIS. Therefore, the Monetary Authority of Singapore does not allow such financial products to be listed in Singapore and targeted at retail investors, as cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin are not listed as eligible assets for ETFs.

On January 19th, according to The Block, JPMorgan analysts pointed out that if GBTC investors continue to recoup profits, Bitcoin prices may face further downward pressure in the coming weeks. After GBTC converted to a spot Bitcoin ETF last week, there has been a capital outflow of over $1.5 billion. JPMorgan Chase ultimately estimated that the outflow of funds from GBTC could reach up to $3 billion, mainly due to potential profit taking by investment investors.

According to the latest market update report from QCP Capital, due to market expectations that spot ETH ETFs may be approved, <a href="/ar/price/ethereum-eth" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Ethereum</a> is likely to continue to outperform Bitcoin in the mid bull market. "We expect Ethereum to continue to surpass Bitcoin in the medium term as market attention shifts towards potential ETH spot ETF approvals," said an analyst at QCP Capital.

QCP Capital's market update report on Wednesday also pointed out that the ETH/BTC exchange rate has risen from 0.05 to 0.06 in the past week. The report added, "the next major crypto events will be the halving of Bitcoin in mid April and potential spot Ethereum ETF approvals starting from May."

On Thursday, the SEC postponed the final deadline for making a decision on the spot of Fidelity Ethereum Bitcoin. The new deadline is March 5th. The SEC stated, "the committee believes it is necessary to designate a longer period of time to take action on the proposed rule change, in order to have sufficient time to consider the proposed rule change and the issues raised therein."

Bloomberg analyst James Seyfhart said, "This move is completely in line with expectations, and in my opinion, the truly important date is late May." According to previous news, Fidelity applied for Ethereum spot ETF in November last year.

## Macro: The labor market remains stable, the Fed may not cut interest rates before the third quarter
On Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending January 13 recorded 187000, the lowest since the week ending September 24, 2022.

Due to data showing that the labor market remained stable, suppressing market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the US dollar index fluctuated upwards and expanded its gains before the US market. It briefly rose to a high of 103.62 during the day and ultimately closed up 0.04%, marking the fifth consecutive trading day of gains at 103.41; The US bond yield continues to rise. The 10-year US Treasury yield remained above 4.1%, ultimately closing at 4.142%; The two-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to the Federal Reserve's policy interest rates, closed at 4.354%.

Spot gold rebounded and closed at two consecutive integer levels during the US session, ultimately closing up 0.85% at $2023.23 per ounce. Spot silver ultimately closed up 0.85% at $22.75 per ounce.

International crude oil continues its upward trend. WTI crude oil rose significantly during the US session and briefly reached an intraday high of $74.16, ultimately closing up 1.55% at $73.80 per barrel; Brent crude oil rose 1.17% to $78.92 per barrel.

The three major US stock indexes opened high and closed high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.54%, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.88%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.35%.

On Thursday, at an event hosted by the Atlanta Business Chronicle, FOMC's monetary policy vote committee member Bostic came out to express his views. The Federal Reserve's Bostic statement suggests that if inflation slows down, it is best to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period of time, and if faster, there may be an early rate cut. He also expressed a desire to see more evidence that inflation is moving towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target. He currently expects policymakers not to cut interest rates before the third quarter.

My current outlook is that we will have our first interest rate cut in the third quarter of this year, and we will decide based on the progress of the data," Bostek said earlier on Thursday. He added that if inflation drops much faster than he expected, he will be willing to take early action. The worst outcome would be for decision-makers to lower interest rates, followed by inflation rising again, ultimately forcing them to raise interest rates again.

According to CME's Federal Reserve Observation, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in the 5.25% -5.50% range in February is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.6%. The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged by March is 42.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 55.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 1.4%.

<div class="blog-details-info">
<div>Author:**Byron B.**, Gate.io Researcher
<div>Translator:Joy Z.
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
</div>

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