Gate Research Institute: Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, BTC breaks $62,000, SUI ecosystem TVL reaches a new historical high.

Gate Research Institute Weekly Report, BTC may be affected by a 50 basis point interest rate cut, breaking through $62,500 and facing resistance at the $63,000 level. Both BTC ETF and ETH ETF are in a net inflow state. The overall market capitalization of Stable Coins has increased for several weeks, and there is further inflow of off-exchange incremental funds. The Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point cut in the federal funds interest rate target range. The Trump family's cryptocurrency project, World Liberty Finance, went live recently. ARB on-chain Decentralized Finance project DeltaPrime suffered an attack, resulting in a loss of about $4.5 million.

Market Analysis

Market Review

According to gate market data, as of September 19, 4:00 (UTC+0):

• BTC Market - BTC surged above $60,000 on the 13th, with a daily rise of 4.07%. It encountered resistance around the $60,800 level and pulled back to the vicinity of $57,500 over the weekend. On the 17th, possibly influenced by approaching interest rate decisions, BTC once again broke through $60,000 with a daily rise of 3.60%. On the 19th, influenced by the macro Favourable Information of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the price rose above $62,500, then attempted to pull back, and is currently fluctuating around $62,000.
• ETH Market - In the past 7 days, the ETH market has been relatively weak. On the 13th, ETH followed BTC's strong breakthrough of $2,450, with a daily increase of 3.28%. Subsequently, ETH began to pull back, falling to around $2,250 on the 16th. However, it did not fall below the short-term support level of $2,150. On the 19th, possibly affected by the interest rate cut, ETH temporarily broke through the short-term resistance level of $2,380 to reach above $2,400.
• AltCoin —— In the past 7 days, the AltCoin market has been greatly affected by the BTC market, and the overall price is at a low level, with some AltCoin rising brightly, and the overall market cap of Cryptocurrency has rebounded to $2.17 trillion. SOL Liquiditystake, Bridged WBTC, and modular blockchainzone were outstanding, with multiple tokens rising by more than 20%.
• Derivatives Data - Over the past 7 days, the overall BTC buy/sell ratio has been positive, and the market is relatively optimistic about BTCPA in the short term. At 18:00 on September 18 (UTC+0), the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point reduction in the federal fund Intrerest Rate target range, which may have a positive impact on the crypto market. The weighted funding rate of BTC is positive, and the overall BTC and ETH contract long/short ratio on the entire network is predominantly Long.
• Stablecoin - The overall market capitalization of stablecoins has risen by 0.59% to US$171.1 billion, and off-exchange incremental funds have flowed in.
• Gas Fee - Gas fee has increased from a minimum of 2 Gwei to 10 Gwei in the past 7 days, which has led to an increase in on-chain activity.

Popular Concepts

According to Coingecko and CoinmarketCap data, this week Solana Liquiditystake, Cat-Themed Token, and modular blockchain zone achieved significant increases, pumping approximately 50.5%, 20.2%, and 13.7% respectively in the past seven days. The commonality among these three zones lies in their innovative narrative or technological development, all of which belong to the hot tracks of this round's Bull Market.

SOL Liquiditystake（SOL Liquidity Staking） —— The Solana Liquiditystake platform allows users to stake idle SOL into the Decentralized Finance platform, unlocking Liquidity rewards in addition to the appreciation of the coin. With the introduction of products supported by multiple exchanges: bnSOL and bbSOL, Solana Liquiditystake is once again attracting attention in the market. The overall pump of this zone has exceeded 50.5% in the past 7 days, with STAKESOL (Stake City SOL) showing outstanding growth.

Cat-Themed Token - The common feature of Cat-Themed Tokens is that they are related to cats in terms of brand image, and their marketing strategies are also unique. The Cat-Themed Token zone has pumped 20.2% overall in the past 7 days. This zone contains a variety of tokens related to cat themes. In the past seven days, the prices of Onigiri (ONI), Ton Cat (TCAT), and Hehe (HEHE) tokens have pumped by 319.3%, 224.9%, and 115.2%, respectively.

Modular Blockchain / Data Availability - The modular blockchain divides the execution, consensus, settlement, and data availability of the original blockchain into four modules. It is an innovative blockchain design paradigm that aims to improve system efficiency and scalability through specialization and division of labor. The data availability solution includes a data availability layer (DAL), data availability sampling (DAS), and data availability committee (DAC), etc. As of September 18th, 5:00 (UTC+0), the overall pump of the modular blockchain section in the past 7 days has been 13.7%, with SAGA's increase exceeding 33.2% and TIA's increase exceeding 30%.

Hot Coins

According to CoinGecko data, the following popular currencies in the past 7 days are as follows:

CKB —— CKB (Nervos Network) is a layer-one public blockchain ecosystem based on PoW Consensus, supporting Smart Contract development, and including a series of layer-two scaling solutions to support high-capacity use cases. On February 13, 2024, Nervos Network underwent a brand strategic upgrade, launching the RGB++ product and shifting its focus to the BTC Layer2 track. On September 13, CKB was listed on a well-known exchange in South Korea. Possibly driven by this news, CKB's 7-day increase reached 102.2%, with a current circulating Market Cap of approximately 7.97 billion US dollars.

SUI - SUI is a DPoS first-layer blockchain based on the Move programming language. Last Thursday, Grayscale announced the launch of the SUI Trust Fund, followed by Circle launching USDC on the Sui testnet on September 18th. These news demonstrate the capital's follow-up on the SUI ecosystem, or influenced by the above factors, SUI pumped 41.7% within 7 days, with a circulating market capitalization of approximately 3.68 billion US dollars.

TIA—— TIA is the native Token of Celestia, which focuses on providing a data availability layer for modular blockchain. According to official sources, Celestia will undergo its first major network upgrade, expanding the Block size to 1 GB, which will significantly improve the data throughput of its ecosystem. As a result, TIA has pumped 39.0% in the past 7 days, with a circulating market capitalization of approximately $1.26 billion.

Focus of this week

Hotspot Review

The Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point reduction in the target range for the federal funds Intrerest Rate The Federal Reserve announced on the 18th that it will cut the federal funds Intrerest Rate target range by 50 basis points to 4.75%-5.00%, marking the first rate cut since March 2020 and signaling a shift in the Fed's monetary policy from a prolonged tightening cycle to an easing cycle. This move indicates that the Fed is responding to the slowdown in economic rise and the challenges posed by external risks by dropping borrowing costs to stimulate economic activity.

According to CME's 'Fed Watch' forecast, there is a 64.86% probability that the Fed will further cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 35.14%. In December, the market expects a cumulative interest rate cut to 4.25%-4.5% with a probability of 14.97%, and the probability of a cut to 4.00%-4.25% rises to 85.03%. These forecasts reflect the market's expectations for further easing by the Fed.

As the Interest Rate in the TradFi market declines, the return on fixed income assets will decrease, and investors may seek higher-yield assets, including high-risk investments such as Crypto Assets. This could bring more capital inflows into major encryption assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Secondly, as the primary pricing method for encryption assets, a rate cut in the US dollar may lead to depreciation of the dollar, resulting in relative pump in Crypto Assets prices.

1inch launches intention-based atomic swap feature Fusion+ Fusion+ is a groundbreaking Cross-Chain Interaction solution launched by 1inch, integrating intent-based exchange and atomic swap technology. The intent-based design allows users to freely choose the order details without worrying about Cross-Chain Interaction routing, MEV, and trust issues with third-party bridges. Because the original exchange technology will ensure that if the user's order cannot be completed for any reason (such as expiration of the time lock), the assets will be safely returned to the original owner.

As a leader in the field of Decentralized Finance aggregators, 1inch's action also promotes the further development of industry 'intent' operations. By auctioning user demands to solvers for execution, the related funds are locked in the contract until the solver completes the operation and is verified, before releasing the corresponding funds. The Cross-Chain Interaction infrastructure Across Protocol has previously used a similar fund design mechanism. Compared to directly transferring funds to the bridge contract for Cross-Chain Interaction operations, this design architecture that increases validators further enhances the security of Cross-Chain Interaction. The way solvers obtain orders is allocated by Dutch auction, and this dynamic game mechanism also stimulates the emergence of innovative solutions in the solver market.

Gate launches the innovation zone, quickly capturing on-chain hotspots and seizing early opportunities gate launches the "Innovation Zone" to provide users with early investment opportunities in on-chain projects. The solution combines the advantages of spot trading and on-chain trading, simplifies the operation process, and helps users easily participate in on-chain hot projects without the need to master complex Web3 Wallets, Private Key management, or other technologies.

Users only need to use the Gate account to quickly participate in popular projects, dropping the technical barriers to participating in on-chain projects. As of September 19, 4:00 (UTC+0), the innovation zone has listed 17 Solana on-chain tokens, 3 Ethereum on-chain tokens, and 6 Tron tokens. In the future, innovation zone tokens will continue to be traded directly without waiting for pre-announcements or countdowns. This trading model can speed up the investment pace and help users seize early-stage projects, but it may also bring higher volatility and trading risks. Investors need to remain vigilant about the risk of potential delisting of innovation zone tokens and ensure they have fully assessed their financial situation and risk tolerance before investing to cope with potential asset losses.

Security Incident

DeltaPrime, an ARB ecosystem Decentralized Finance project, has been attacked and lost approximately $4.5 million On September 16th, Decentralized Finance project DeltaPrime confirmed on X platform that its DeltaPrime Blue on Arbitrum suffered a security incident, with a loss of $5.98 million due to the theft of the Private Key. After the incident, the attacker continued to transfer assets, affecting liquidity pools including DPUSDC, DPARB, and DPBTCb. The attacker exchanged USDC for ETH and transferred 1,200 ETH (about $2.8 million) to a new Address.

The next day, the attacker transferred all stolen assets, including the previously transferred ETH, to the Ethereum network and deposited them into the Tornado Cash mixing protocol in batches.

Project follow

Trump Family Cryptocurrency Project World Liberty Finance On September 17, the Trump family announced the official launch of World Liberty Financial, with several important roles in the project being held by members of the Trump family. According to official Twitter messages, WLFI has currently passed audits by companies such as BlockSec and Peckshield. WLFI will collaborate with Aave, focusing on providing lending services for Crypto Assets. On September 15, WLFI announced that Sandy Peng, co-founder of Scroll, has become its latest advisor. In addition, Luke, one of the partners of Polychain Capital, has also become an advisor to the project.

According to its White Paper, 62.66% of the Tokens will be allocated in the upcoming Token sale, approximately 17.33% of WLFI Tokens will be specifically used to incentivize participation in project governance development and other community rise plans, and the remaining 20% will be allocated to the team and advisors. Considering President Trump's positive impact on Cryptocurrency, early participation in WLFI may bring significant returns to investors. However, according to Bloomberg, the project team members have previously sold weight loss drugs and get-rich-quick courses, and have made inappropriate remarks when discussing Cryptocurrency. Investors should make investment decisions based on multiple sources of information.

Highlighted Data

Sui TVL exceeds $800 million, reaching a new all-time high According to DefiLlama data, Sui TVL has surpassed $800 million, now reporting $810 million, reaching a historical high. Among them, the lending protocol NAVI Protocol TVL reached $310 million, with a 7-day increase of 16.25%; the lending protocol Scallop Lend TVL reached $140 million, with a 7-day increase of 19.79%; the lending platform Suilend TVL reached $134 million, with a 7-day increase of 14.63%. Sui has pumped 35.1% in the past week and is now trading at $1.38 per token.

US ETF Spot Market Data From 00:00 on September 13th to 04:00 on September 19th (UTC+0), the total net asset value of the BTC ETF was $54.85 billion, accounting for 4.61% of BTC's market capitalization, with a cumulative net inflow of $17.44 billion. The BTC Spot ETF market was in a net inflow state overall this week, with a total net inflow of $1.46 billion for the week, including a $2.63 billion inflow on September 13th, the largest inflow of the week.

From 00:00 on September 13th to 4:00 on September 19th (UTC+0), the total net asset value of the Ethereum ETF was $6.3 billion, accounting for 2.25% of the total market capitalization of Ethereum. The cumulative net outflow was $615 million. The total net outflow of the ETH Spot ETF this week was $34.37 million. The only inflow this week was on September 13th, with a net inflow of approximately $1.52 million.

Stable CoinMarket Cap Changes According to DefiLlama data, as of 0:00 on September 19th (UTC+0), in the past seven days, the Stable Coin Market Cap has risen by 0.59% to $1711.72 billion. USDT continues to dominate with a market share of 69.53%. Compared to last week, USDT Market Cap has risen slightly by 0.51%, USDC Market Cap has increased by 0.65%, and DAI Market Cap has decreased by 0.55%. Overall, the continuous rise in Stable Coin Market Cap for several weeks indicates sustained inflow of external funds.

Weighted funding rate As of September 19th, 11:00 (UTC +0), the weighted funding rate for BTCHoldings is 0.0055%, and the weighted funding rate for ETHHoldings is 0.0091%. In the past seven days, the weighted funding rate for BTC was negative only on September 14th, and overall positive. The weighted funding rate for ETHHoldings was negative only on September 16th, and overall positive. The majority of the BTC and ETH contracts on the entire network are long positions.

Market Opportunities

Project Airdrop

The Airdrop project that can be followed this week is: Catizen Catizen is a TON ecosystem synthesis game with cats as the theme, built on the TON blockchain. The core gameplay is Tap to Earn, but with added simulation elements. Players need to manage a cat café and earn game Tokens when customers come to the store to play with cats. Only players who earn enough in-game Tokens $vKitty and enter the 'Silver League' in the leaderboard are eligible for the Airdrop.

The project announced the tokenomics on September 15th. CATI, as its governance/utility token, has a total supply of 1 billion, with no further issuance. The entire airdrop process will be completed within 12 quarters after TGE. Catizen's total funding reached 6.2 million US dollars. The latest round of financing took place on July 16, 2024, with a completion of 4 million US dollars in strategic financing, with participation from well-known institutions such as Binance Labs and HashKey Capital. Gate will list Catizen (CATI) for trading on September 20, 2024, at 18:00 (UTC+8).

As of 8:00 on September 19th (UTC+0), the number of participants in Catizen's Stake to Earn stake activity has exceeded one million, with a total stake of nearly 15 million CATI, making it the project with the highest number of participants in the encryption ecosystem's stake income activity.

Financing Weekly Report

Several projects successfully completed financing this week, involving a wide range of applications in infrastructure, gaming, and other fields. According to RootData, between September 13th and September 19th, a total of 10 projects announced financing, totaling 123 million US dollars. Here are the top three financing amounts:

TON ——TON (The Open Network) is a fully Decentralization Layer1 blockchain designed by Telegram. Foresight Ventures and an exchange announced a strategic investment of $30 million in the TON blockchain on Wednesday. Large OTC trades of this magnitude are relatively rare. DeFiLlama data shows that the Total Value Locked of TON exceeds $400 million.

Helius ——Solana developer platform Helius announced the completion of a $21.75 million financing, with participation from Haun Ventures, Founders Fund, Foundation Capital, 6th Man Ventures, Chapter One, and Spearhead. The new funds will be used to accelerate the development of Cryptocurrency and Solana applications.

Hemi Network - Hemi Labs, co-founded by BTC developer Jeff Garzik, announced the completion of a $15 million financing round to develop and launch Hemi, a layer-two blockchain network built on BTC and Ethereum. The financing round was led by Breyer Capital and Big Brain Holdings. Hemi Network aims to combine the advantages of both BTC and Ethereum, integrating the security of BTC with the liquidity and programmability of Ethereum.

Next week follow

Token Unlock

According to the data from Token Unlocks, several important Token unlocking events will take place in the market next week (2024.9.20-9.26). Most of the Token unlocking amounts are over tens of millions of dollars, with a total unlocking amount of 61.92 million dollars. The unlocking situations for the first three weeks are as follows:

ID The Token plan will unlock approximately 78.49 million Tokens at 12:00 UTC+0 on the 22nd, accounting for 18.23% of its circulating supply, with a value of approximately $27.4 million. Among them, the seed round sales party will unlock 20 million Tokens, accounting for 25% of the Tokens unlocked this time.

VENOM will unlock 235 million Tokens at 8:00 AM UTC+0 on the 25th, accounting for 12.67% of the circulating supply, of which 220 million Tokens will be unlocked, accounting for 93.6% of this unlocking.

LISTA will unlock 24.68 million Tokens at 9:00 AM UTC+0 on the 20th, accounting for 13.49% of the circulating supply, of which 15 million Airdrop unlocked Tokens account for 60.78% of this unlocking.

encryption calendar

In the coming week (2024.9.20-9.26), the blockchain and cryptocurrency industry will see multiple key events. On September 20th, ETHGlobal Singapore will officially kick off. This event will continue the enthusiasm of the Token2049 event held on September 18th-19th. Token2049 has already hosted hundreds of side events, attracting numerous institutions, investors, and professionals to attend.

In addition, on September 25, the EOS Network Foundation conducted a hard fork or Consensus upgrade, and stated that Spring 1.0 and Savanna Consensus Algorithm will be the most important upgrades since EOS network was launched. Some important macro-level data releases also have a significant impact on the industry. It is worth noting that Australia, Sweden, and Switzerland have announced interest rate decisions. This release covers key areas such as economic growth, inflation, and employment markets. These data are important foundations for understanding the future monetary policy trends in Australia and Europe.

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