In this field, interesting phenomena often occur. For instance, during a bull market, significant market fluctuations are usually accompanied by relevant news. However, if you constantly follow all kinds of market news, you are likely to be misled by false information or rumors. Conversely, if you ignore all news, you might miss out on important developments. In a situation with an abundance of information, knowing what and how much to follow becomes a dilemma.

So, how should we approach this issue?

I believe the key is not the quantity or authenticity of the information itself, but rather the need to establish your own methodologies and basic judgment criteria. This way, you can minimize the impact of various information on misleading you.

First Scenario: Assessing Based on the Likelihood of Events Happening

For example, recently there’s been talk that the US is discussing the “Stablecoin Act” again. If this bill passes, it will put USDT at a disadvantage. If Tether (USDT’s issuer, part of Hong Kong’s iFinex) wants US approval, it will need to shift its offshore operations to meet US regulations. This would ensure that some exchanges continue to support USDT (while those unconcerned with US regulations can ignore this).

As we discussed in our article on stablecoins on May 4, it seems that for the next 3-5 years, USDT will still dominate trading in this space. During this time, USDC might gradually replace USDT. Consequently, most trading pairs (including exchanges) in the crypto world will shift from USDT to US-compliant stablecoins. This is an inevitable trend.

However, I’ve noticed that some people are already panicking and have started converting their USDT to USDC in the past couple of days. I don’t think there’s a need to rush into this at the moment. From my perspective, the chance of USDT collapsing immediately is very low.

Second Scenario: Buying on Rumors, Selling on News

For instance, regarding the Ethereum ETF news in the US, many people probably saw on May 7 that the SEC postponed the decision on the Invesco Galaxy Ethereum spot ETF to July. Shortly after this news, Grayscale also withdrew its 19b-4 application for the Ethereum futures ETF. There are various speculations about Grayscale’s decision; one reason might be that they realized approval this month was unlikely and withdrawing the application would lessen the SEC’s workload.

This was actually expected. The Ethereum ETF won’t be approved quickly. However, we believe there’s a good chance it will be approved by the end of this year.

I’ve also seen that some people plan to wait until the Ethereum ETF is approved before entering the market. My advice is to think the opposite. If you really believe in Ethereum’s potential, there’s no need to wait. You should buy Ethereum now and sell it once the ETF approval is confirmed. This way, you’re more likely to make a profit.

Third Scenario: Rationally Evaluating the Impact of Negative News

For instance, last month, Uniswap received a Wells Notice from the SEC, indicating a possible lawsuit. Some media, in their quest for traffic, used sensational headlines like “Breaking News.” Consequently, some UNI holders panicked and sold their tokens, even at a loss.

Such actions seem quite hasty to me.

First, it’s essential to understand what a Wells Notice is. Then, check Uniswap’s official response and their countermeasures. Additionally, investigate how frequently the SEC has taken similar actions in the past.

In short, when you encounter negative news, besides verifying the source and authenticity, you should also think comprehensively. Selling your tokens based on a single news piece is rash. Moreover, if you wait to see such news and then sell your tokens, it might already be too late.

I recall that the SEC targeted UNI a few years ago, accusing it of allowing certain tokens to be issued on its platform. However, the SEC lost the case, and the judge ruled the charges were unfounded.

Regarding the project itself, UNI, as the leader in the DEX field, symbolizes innovation and represents DeFi. Sometimes, old laws and new innovations need to “adjust” to each other, which is part of the development process. Therefore, if you believe in the emerging crypto (DeFi) field, you should maintain that belief.

To give a more direct example, Bitcoin has been declared “dead” 477 times by the media since its inception. If you had sold your Bitcoin every time you saw such negative news, you would have missed 477 of the best opportunities. The chart below illustrates this point.

In summary, if you buy whenever you hear good news and sell whenever you hear bad news, you’re unlikely to make a profit in the long run.

Of course, specific news needs to be evaluated based on the situation. For example, positive news from institutions like BlackRock and Grayscale can sometimes directly drive the market up, while negative news can cause it to drop. Actions and announcements from the Federal Reserve have an even more direct impact on market trends because the essence of the market is money, and the movement of money determines the market’s direction.

Therefore, it’s helpful to categorize news based on its nature. News related to money and liquidity should be closely watched and analyzed. Event-related news (like hacks or announcements about major countries potentially adopting Bitcoin) should be thoroughly understood and considered. Miscellaneous personal opinions and gossip from various media sources can be viewed selectively to form a well-rounded perspective.

Since many people use news to guide their trading decisions, let’s delve deeper into the topic of buying and selling.

1. When to buy, and what to buy?

This is a common question, but actually, we’ve been addressing it in almost every one of the 400 articles we’ve published over the past two years. As mentioned in our previous articles, the answer to this question depends on the context and the specific time period.

If you’ve been following us for a long time and have read most of our articles but still haven’t developed your own investment strategy, my advice is to pause and rethink your approach. You should take the time to develop a comprehensive investment plan rather than focusing on buying immediately.

If you’re new to this field:

First, spend some time learning about it. Focus on areas that interest you the most. For example, if you’re interested in airdrops, look up information and tutorials on airdrops and participate in some basic interactions. If you’re interested in financial management or staking, explore the financial products and rules on leading centralized and decentralized exchanges.

Once you have a basic understanding, start planning your positions reasonably and try making small spot investments (avoid contracts). If you don’t want to think too much, you can simply invest in BTC/ETH, which is the least risky investment path.

If you have more time and energy, consider your purchases based on two dimensions. The first dimension involves using data indicators (like K-line and on-chain indicators), and the second involves project research. You can download our previously compiled “Project Research Template” for guidance. Key aspects to understand include:

• The project’s growth potential (compared to industry competitors)
• The project’s roadmap, token economics, partnerships, and team
• The project’s holders (including venture capitalists and top holding wallet addresses)
• The likelihood of the project’s token being listed on major centralized exchanges
• And more…

Some people prefer to follow a mentor or teacher for guidance on buying. While I can’t comment much on this, as it has been a contentious topic in our previous articles, remember that you are responsible for your decisions. The two most important rules to remember are: protect your principal and avoid investing in things you don’t understand.

1. When to sell?

Many people say that knowing when to buy is a skill, but knowing when to sell is an art. Selling is indeed harder than buying. Apart from selling based on news, as mentioned earlier, what are some other common references for selling?

First Scenario: Selling Based on Historical Experience (or Personal Experience)

Let’s use Bitcoin as an example. In our recent article on Bitcoin (May 2), we shared a chart that illustrates historical trends:

When you look at a broader time frame, the crypto market is not only cyclical, but each cycle has similar patterns. For example, the historical lows in 2018 and 2022, and the halvings in 2020 and 2024, are all 511 days apart. The bear markets of 2018 and 2022 both lasted 371 days. Additionally, after each of the first two halvings, there was always a subsequent pullback. As shown in the chart below.

If history repeats itself and the structure remains the same, this bull market should theoretically peak in 2025.

However, historical patterns are just one way to look at it, as each cycle can have different characteristics. Given the current market trends, we have reason to believe that Bitcoin is likely to break through its all-time high (ATH) within the next year.

People set their target expectations based on their experiences and should also consider their own costs. For example, if Zhang’s average cost of buying Bitcoin is $20,000 and he aims for a 5x return, this is likely achievable in this cycle. But if Li’s average cost is $50,000 and he also aims for a 5x return, this might be much harder to achieve (at least within this bull cycle).

Second Scenario: Selling Based on On-Chain Data (Data Indicators)

There are many on-chain data indicators available. In our previous articles, we have compiled the top 10 Bitcoin indicators for reference, as shown in the chart below.

In addition to various Bitcoin indicators, our past articles have compiled many commonly used indicators for reference. These include K-line indicators (EMA, VP, Fibonacci, etc.), the Fear & Greed Index, BTC Dominance (BTC.D), USDT Dominance (USDT.D), the ETH/BTC ratio, the Altseason indicator, ETF fund flows, and more. Each of these indicators has its own specific use and focus. Combining on-chain indicators to inform your selling decisions is a sound strategy.

However, it’s crucial to remember that all indicators are based on historical data and projections. It’s not advisable to rely entirely on a single indicator for all your trading decisions.

1. Useful On-Chain Tools

Whether you are buying or selling, based on news or experience indicators, you need some on-chain tools to achieve your goals. At the end of the article, here is a list of tools from our previously compiled “On-Chain Toolbox”:

Wallet Tools:

• Debank: One of the best tools for checking EVM wallet address assets, allowing you to see token holdings and asset status for any address.
• Arkham: An advanced on-chain wallet data analysis tool that lets you track other addresses and their interactions while checking balances and wallet PnL.
• Token Unlocks: Provides data on token unlock schedules.
• Alphatrace: A useful wallet tracking tool that shows historical transaction win rates, realized profits, unrealized profits, and more.
• Apelike: Lets you add specific wallet addresses (like whale wallets or smart money) and get notifications when they buy or sell NFTs.

Security Tools:

• Revoke Cash: A wallet address checking tool that allows you to revoke signed authorizations, helping to eliminate potential risks.
• Scamsniffer: A browser security plugin that warns you of potential risks when visiting special pages or performing wallet authorizations.
• Solsniffer: A tool for the Solana chain that checks the risk of any token on Solana, and provides scores and human analysis.

Twitter Tools:

• Vestlab: Lets you check detailed tokenomics and unlock schedules of projects, and the real activity of the project’s Twitter.
• Tweetscout: Monitors project Twitter data, with a scoring module where a score above 200 is a good indicator.
• Alphascan: Lists many crypto KOLs and summarizes the projects and tokens they’ve recently discussed, helping you understand KOL attention trends.

Fundraising Tools:

• Crunchbase: Queries project financing information, showing the total amount of all tradfi and crypto fundraising rounds and investors, and allows tracking of the latest VC investments and market trends.
• Crypto Fundraising: Has a simple interface, showing detailed financing round information and related news for projects.
• Cypher Hunter: Useful for finding small financing information for smaller projects.

Airdrop Tools:

• Airdrops: Lists almost all current projects that might have airdrops and provides corresponding interaction tutorials.
• Earndrop: Sends real-time airdrop information for projects your wallet participates in via email, checks unclaimed airdrops, and provides lists of various bridges and testnet faucets.

Aggregator Tools:

• Dex Screener: Tracks and analyzes real-time data from multiple decentralized exchanges and chains.
• DEXTools: Provides real-time prices, price alerts, whale movements, and includes an intuitive scoring module. If you’re new, avoid tokens with a score below 80.
• AVE: Includes a new avescript site for checking contract risks.
• Birdeye: Shows real-time K-lines, token holding information, monitors newly listed tokens, and tracks top fluctuating tokens.
• Gmgn: Tracks smart wallet transactions.

Comprehensive Tools:

• Coinglass: Contains many common indicators, including funding rates, long/short positions and liquidation stats, Bitcoin ETFs, exchange inflows and outflows, gainers and losers, heatmaps, Bitcoin ROI, K-lines, and more.
• CoinMarketCap: One of the most commonly used tools for project data, allowing you to check prices, market caps, listed exchanges, and more.

Disclaimer：

1. This article is reprinted from [话李话外]. All copyrights belong to the original author [话李话外]. If there are objections to this reprint, please contact the Gate Learn team, and they will handle it promptly.
2. Liability Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not constitute any investment advice.
3. Translations of the article into other languages are done by the Gate Learn team. Unless mentioned, copying, distributing, or plagiarizing the translated articles is prohibited.